Cambodia’s economic growth is projected to slow to 3% in 2026 while average inflation rises to 5.6%, International Monetary Fund staff said after an Article IV consultation mission.
The preliminary estimate follows real GDP growth of 6% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025. IMF staff cited higher energy prices, softer external demand, weak tourism, subdued domestic demand and trade-policy uncertainty.
Inflation averaged 2.5% in 2025 but rose sharply in May 2026. Staff expect the higher energy-cost pass-through to lift the annual average before inflation moderates in 2027.
The current account moved from a small surplus to a deficit in 2025 as imports outpaced still-strong exports and remittances declined. Foreign direct investment remained strong, and reserves were assessed as adequate at about eight months of imports.
Risks are tilted downward for growth and upward for inflation. The IMF listed volatile energy prices, El Niño effects, trade uncertainty, weaker tourism, real-estate weakness and deteriorating asset quality among the threats.
Staff recommended temporary, targeted help for vulnerable households and affected firms while unwinding broad fuel support as price pressures ease. They also called for stronger tax compliance and tighter management of exemptions.
Cambodia’s broadly stable riel-dollar exchange rate remains a nominal anchor in a highly dollarized economy. The IMF urged agile liquidity management and stronger interbank markets as part of gradual de-dollarization.
The National Bank of Cambodia ended broad regulatory forbearance, which the IMF called an important step. Staff said banks should recognize losses promptly and maintain adequate provisions, especially given real-estate exposure.
These figures are staff’s preliminary mission findings, not a final Executive Board conclusion. A report remains subject to management approval and later Board discussion, and actual outcomes can change with energy prices, tourism, trade and domestic financial conditions.